Predictions for 2009 You Can Take to the Bank!

I rarely make predictions here, because if you ever played on any fantasy sports league with me, well, uh, you would understand.  In my football league, I finished about 10th out of 12 teams total.  I don't think 11 or 12 ever updated their rosters after the first week either, and I did update mine.  Well, most of the time I did.

But anyway, I'm going to make some predictions for the 2009 NASCAR season that you can bet your 401k on, if there's anything left in it.  If you will indulge me, I will do a countdown list here for your reading pleasure.

Prediction number 10:  No matter how the Chase for the Cup turns out in 2009, even if all 12 of the Chase contenders finish within a tenth of a second apart, fans will still complain about it.  Old timers will always see the Chase as young Brian France monkeying with the system, trying to fix something that didn't need to be fixed in the first place.  I consider myself to be among that group.  Not that I'm an old timer, of course.  I was barely out of my diapers when Richard Petty ran his last race.  Some people don't consider 29 to be too old to be potty trained, do they?

Prediction number 9:  Speaking of Brian France, even if the 2009 season provides the best racing in the history of NASCAR, some people will not be happy with the job he's doing.  NASCAR purists will remember that Big Bill France gave us NASCAR.  Little Bill, also known as Bill France Jr. gave us the modern era of NASCAR.  Brian France gave us the Chase, and the Car Of Tomorrow.  NASCAR president Mike Helton gave hope to those of us with mustaches that we can still look cool wearing them in the 21st century.

Prediction number 8:  Someone, oh, I don't know, maybe the driver of the 14 car, will say something bad about Goodyear tires in 2009.  Someone will also be called to the big house for a sit down, come to Jesus meeting, and probably won't say anything at all again for a few weeks about tires.  Goodyear and NASCAR will be burning the midnight oil to ensure that the tires for the Indianapolis race in 2009 will be better than they were for the 2008 race at the Brickyard.  But then again, I think that if they rolled out the tires they used at Watkins Glen in 2008, they would be better than what was used at Indy last year.  If they rolled out the cheapest passenger tire that can purchased at Wal-Mart, it would probably be an improvement.  What I want to know is where can I buy a supply of 2008 Indianapolis tires to put on my truck in order to have a valid excuse for being late to work about 3 times a week in 2009? 

Prediction number 7:  NASCAR's beefed up drug testing policy for 2009 will probably net exactly nothing.  If any of the crews, drivers or anyone else involved in the drug testing program can't quit long enough to pass the newly mandated tests, they're in the wrong business anyway, and probably have already left the sport, at least temporarily after the announcement last month.  The drivers supposedly can be tested at any time, and I seriously doubt that there will be any of them that will try to beat the system in that regard.  Sure, NASCAR has had a couple of drivers over the last few years who did have drug problems, but they're pretty much gone now.  I believe we're fortunate in many ways that NASCAR has evolved as sport that seems to not have major drug problems, as other sports have had, and still continue to have at times.  Most of America is so used to random drug testing now, that we who actually attempt to work for a living try to steer clear of anything that might cost us our jobs.  Heck, I even avoid eating poppy seed rolls, since they have shown up as opiates on some drug tests.  You have probably been drug tested several times if you've changed jobs at all in the last 30 years.  I know I have.  What NASCAR should really do is institute mandatory polygraph testing for their crew chiefs.  "Did you purposely move that shock mounting bracket to cheat?"  "No, sir.  I did not."  BUZZZZZZZZ!  "Wrong answer, dumb butt!  You're outta here!"

Prediction number 6:  Former driver and now FOX TV broadcaster Darrell Waltrip will once again lavish excessive praise upon a rather unpopular driver, and tick off a lot of fans.  Last year, it was Kyle Busch, and Darrell's e-mail inbox is still probably overloaded with upset fans' messages.  Give Darrell some credit though.  He's been in this sport longer than just about anyone else who's still around now, and he likes what he likes.  We need to remember that once upon a time, Darrell wasn't the grand old guy of this sport.  When he showed up around 1972, he peeved a lot of people off, and did so for a large chunk of his career.  Darrell has never been shy in front of a microphone, and in many ways, he's helped bring our sport to the level of popularity that it currently enjoys.  To me, Darrell Waltrip is a genius.  He understood, early on, that NASCAR gains popularity when controversy reigns.  Darrell's just doing what he's always been so good at:  Stirring the pot.  He gets people talking and buzzing about things.  For a sport that's seen a down turn in ticket sales and TV ratings, starting off the 2009 season with ole DW on FOX is just what the sport needs right now.  (DW, please e-mail me.  I'll tell you where to wire the money!)

Prediction number 5:  No matter how well the various networks that broadcast NASCAR in 2009 perform their duties, racing fans will be unhappy.  In 2008, I thought each network had it's strengths and weaknesses.  My personal favorite is FOX.  The guys in the booth just seem to have more fun with their broadcasting duties.  I like fun.  I don't watch racing because I want to get stressed out, even though I often do.  I like fun, and to me, the guys at FOX keep it fun.  I do, however give kudos to the other networks that broadcast NASCAR as well.  Kyle Petty is always a joy to watch and listen to.  Kyle has a no nonsense way of getting his point across and I appreciate that as a fan.  TNT was very smart to hire Kyle Petty to be in the booth.  I will say the same for ESPN and ABC for having the smarts to hire Dale Jarrett.  Dale is obviously a chip off the old block, because his dad, Ned Jarrett has been a long time favorite of mine as well, not just as a broadcaster, but as a driver, and indeed, just a nice guy.  (Dale and Ned, please see my message to DW above!)

Prediction number 4:  The new NASCAR testing ban probably will not cut down on testing very much.  The teams that have the pockets laden with cash to test, will test.  They can't test at a ton of tracks now, but there are always tracks out there not sanctioned by NASCAR.  If I had about 1000 more acres, and access to a bulldozer and and asphalt machine, I'd build a prefect replica of Daytona in my back yard.  (DW, Dale, and Ned:  You might want to keep that in mind while you make your contributions.  Wink, wink.)

Prediction number 3:  The number '3' will not be run in NASCAR in 2009.  Richard Childress, I assume, will keep the rights to use the number this year, and will not use it.  I don't know that I ever want to see it used again, except if Childress' grandson Austin Dillon wants to use it.  I know that Richard would probably give it to any Earnhardt that wants it as well, but right now, I don't see the '3' being used in 2009.  For many of us, I think we're only just beginning to sort out just how much the loss of Dale Earnhardt has meant to the sport.  It's amazing to me, but the fact is that the pain I felt on February 18, 2001 still exists today.  I miss Dale.  I miss him more than I ever believed I could.

Prediction number 2:  Jeff Gordon will win again, and probably in 2009.  That team was so close, so many times, in 2008, that I know Jeff still has more wins left in him.  I don't know about the championship, but he's got more wins left.  I believe that Jeff could possibly become at least the 3rd winningest driver in NASCAR history, after Richard Petty and David Pearson.  I also believe the crew chief Steve Letarte will be in for even more flack from many of Jeff's fans, unless the 24 team wins early and often in 2009.  Love him or hate him, Jeff Gordon is still the real deal.  (Jeff, please see prediction number 4, and I'll add you to the list!)

Prediction number 1:  This one is easy.  If Dale Earnhardt Jr. wins 20 races in 2009, and wins the Cup by 1000 points, there will still be fans calling for the head of crew chief Tony Eury Jr. delivered on a silver platter.  The hatred of Tony Jr. is phenomenal, to say the least.  Cousins for life, Tony's often blamed for the lackluster performance of the 88 team in 2008.  At the beginning of the season in 2008, they set some goals for themselves.  Win a race.  They did at Michigan in June.  Make the Chase.  They did, but ended up finishing 12th out of 12 Chase contenders.  Not a great year for the 88 team, but they improved tons over 2007, their last year with DEI.  My personal feeling is that Tony Jr. be given a chance in 2009.  I know many of my Earnhardt Nation brethren feel differently, but I say give Tony a second year at Hendrick Motorsports.  If they don't do a better job in 2009, I'll join the anti Eury Jr. choir on this one.  If I see 2 or more wins, and see Junior competing for wins during the Chase, I will vote that Tony Jr. stay on the job.  Personally, I see Junior's mind wandering at the end of a long season.  I'm not questioning his commitment to the job, I'm just saying that Junior probably needs a little extra pumping up when it gets to the end of a long, grueling season.  He's human, as are we all, but if he's going to win the whole enchilada, he needs more cheerleaders on the radio, and Tony Jr. can help more in that area than he has in the past.  I say both Jr.'s need to step up to the plate a little more in 2009, and if they can do that, they can win it all.  That's what they're for anyway, isn't it?

Let's get the Show on the Road!

It's 2009, and it's almost time to go racing again!  Let's see a show of hands for who you want to win in 2009!  Ok, down in the front there.  I doubt that Dick Trickle will win in 2009.  I'm sorry, but I'm just going to say it.

2009 is a brand new year with brand new promises for wins and championships.  Am I going to predict winners?  No, I'm not.  I'm going to predict some losers though.

EGR, which is the name for the new Earnhardt Ganassi Racing will not win in 2009, unless it's at a road course with Juan Pablo Montoya.  Martin Truex, Jr., please call your agent.  EGR is doomed to fail, just as has DEI in the last few years.  Put the fork in it, it's done.  

GEM will not produce greatly in 2009. Buying out Petty didn't gain much except the number 43, which was a major number in the sport, but no longer is.  Richard Petty doesn't drive the 43 anymore, and though Andretti and Hamilton, the number would have lost it's luster years ago.  Not really, of course.  For major fans of NASCAR, the 43 will always be famous.

As will the 21.  As will the 3.  As will other numbers.  But some of those will not be back this year, or possibly ever again.

What's in store for 2009?  Probably more of the same.  Hendrick, Roush, JGR, and maybe RCR will win the races in 2009.  I expect a surprise win by Stewart-Haas Racing as well, who will be running Hendrick equipment.  We might see a win by a minor team as well, such as GEM, but I don't expect any miracles from the EGR group.

Who's my winner for the Daytona 500?  I predict Jeff Burton.  I don't know why, but I just dream about it happening.  I see all the RCR cars running strong at Daytona, and newcomer Casey Mears putting in a strong appearance.  Watch out for Kevin Harvick, who knows how to win this race.  He's done it before.

Watch out for a guy named Earnhardt as well.  He's won here a lot, and you just never count out anyone named Earnhardt at Daytona.

Time Goes By So Slowly

And time can do so much, as the old song says.  It's much the same way in NASCAR's off-season as well.  Yes, the tedium of no racing and very much reduced coverage leaves us hardcore race fans feeling like we're living in a vacuum.  The news that has filtered through, however, has been rather grim.

With the  few strokes of a couple of pens, Dale Earnhardt Incorporated and Petty Enterprises have basically ceased to exist.  What was DEI is now partnered with Chip Ganassi Racing to become Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.  At least the name remains, but little of what Dale must have envisioned for his family business will exist in 2009 and beyond.  What was once NASCAR's greatest team has been swallowed up by a relatively new upstart, Gillett Evernham Motorsports.  GEM will now own the most famous number in the sport's history, the 43.

It is likely that there will be no one named Petty racing in NASCAR in 2009.  It is possible, for the first time since the very founding of the sport, that no one named Petty will even be involved in any of the teams in 2009.  Has the era of Petty finally ended for good?  If so, I personally am removing my hat and bowing my head in a moment of silence.

It appears that another founding team will only be seen on occasion in 2009.  The Wood Brothers 21 is only planning to run a hand full of races in 2009, unless major sponsorship becomes available.  For those of you who are old enough, or have been a fan long enough to remember those classic battles between the 21 Wood Brothers car driven by David Pearson and the 43 Petty Enterprises car driven by Richard Petty,  knowing that the day has finally come that neither of these teams will even be a presence at the track is a very sobering realization.  NASCAR has truly turned a full circle now.

Several drivers are looking for rides in 2009; the most prominent among them being Eliot Sadler and Bobby Labonte.  Both drivers signed contract extensions with their owners during the 2008 season, yet both of them are looking for a ride for 2009.  I sincerely hope that both of these drivers, and others as well, find the sponsorship and support they need to go racing in the Sprint Cup series in 2009.

All is not forlorn though.  Even though fans have suffered through the usual doldrums that occur in the average off season, plus the knowledge of the tough times our sport faces, there is good news.  It's now 2009, officially.  As I write this, the 2009 Daytona 500 is only 42 days away, and even though because of testing bans, the Daytona Speedweeks will be somewhat shortened, the end of the tunnel is beginning to come into sight once again.  In just a matter of weeks, the NASCAR faithful will once again be treated to the spectacle that is our sport's greatest race, and all the excitement that will entail.

I'll be saddened to see the teams who will not be at Daytona this year, and saddened by the passing of eras that many of us thought would never end, but as a fan, I am ready to get back to the pageantry, the drama, and the just flat out fun that is NACAR racing.

Athlete or Not? Are NASCAR Drivers really Athletes?

It's an age old argument, that I'm quite frankly getting tired of.  Listening to a recent Christmas edition of Sporting News Radio, I head a guest host say that NASCAR drivers are not athletes.  "They drive around in circles, for Christ's sake" the host exclaimed.  "Anybody could do that!"

I'll refrain from my usual arguments about the 120 plus degree heat.  I'll refrain from my usual arguments about losing up to 8 per cent of total body weight during a 500 mile race in the summer.  No, I have a different argument that I'd like to bring up that will prove for once and all that yes, indeed, NASCAR drivers are true athletes.

Hand and eye coordination has long been touted as the main ingredient for any athlete.  Yes, any idiot can drive a nice climate controlled passenger car for hours in circles.  Most of us, who happen to be male, have done this with families in the car while looking for our vacation destinations.  Asking for directions?  That's truly a non-sport.

I personally have never driven the family minivan at 180 miles per hour in circles around anything.  I've never been able to get the minivan up to even half that speed on a dead flat stretch of interstate.  My face pours sweat, my perfectly arranged hair sprouts horns, but the dang thing won't go over 75, no matter what I do to it.  I asked a racing experienced guy that I know why that phenomena exists.  His answer was succinct.  "Well, it's like you're driving a dang barn door through the air.  It just ain't going to go that dang fast."  I thought, with my superior hand and eye skills, that I could make a UPS van go 180 on a dead, flat, straight road.

I was wrong.  As it turns out, there was some stupid deal called aerodynamics that made my minivan, and indeed, the big brown truck, move relatively slowly through the air.  A really huge vehicle with a huge profile will go slower than something shaped like a bullet through the air.  I'm guessing that this is why we don't see many bullets shaped like UPS delivery vans.

But, naturally, I digress.  The main point of what I'm trying to say here is that very few sportscasters could maintain control over a 3500 lb stock car at speeds much over 45 MPH for more than a lap or two, on any track in the nation.  There is no CD player, there is no Garmin.  There is no cruise control, nor is there any gas gauge.  In many cases, I'm guessing some of these NASCAR haters couldn't do without a regular shot of thier favorite beverage at regular intervals.

Here's one for you, sports experts.  Try driving any vehicle on a straight line at 180 plus mph for more than 5 seconds.  Now, try doing it while having to steer and turn corners, and try to keep that vehicle out of the wall.  Try doing it with 42 other vehicles on the track.  Try to pass a slower car in front of you without crashing.  It's not a sport, huh? 

Try it for real before you say it's not a sport.  In NASCAR, it's not just Hand to Eye coordination.  You have to have your hands, eyes, feet, and basically your entire brain utterly coordinated, sometimes at extreme heat, pulling extreme G's.  

Do it before you criticize it, please.  I don't know crap about soccer, but I'd say it takes some skills.  Racing takes some extreme skills most sports types have never even thought about.

In the Unemployment Line - NASCAR Faces Tough Times

Not all of NASCAR, obviously, but there are quite a few people who depend upon the sport for their livelihood that are looking for jobs this off season.  The recent tough economic times have been far reaching in the sport.  Hundreds of shop employees have been laid off, beginning back during the racing season.  More than a few drivers are looking for a ride, and even long time writers who have covered the sport for many years are not suddenly without jobs.

No one, of course, ever really seriously suggested that NASCAR as not just a sport, but an industry of its own, was immune to tough times.  No form of entertainment is truly immune, unless you count liquor stores, and that's only if you call drinking entertainment.  It certainly makes for an interesting spectator sport at times, especially during the holiday season.

Two relatively high profile drivers are looking for jobs right now.  Elliot Sadler has reportedly been let go from GEM in favor of A.J. Allmendinger.  Bobby Labonte, who announced he was leaving Petty some days ago has still not announced where he will be in 2009.  One would hope that both drivers find gainful employment for the 2009 season, but times are tough in NASCAR.

Sponsors have suddenly found themselves with much smaller advertising budgets going into the new year.  Car manufacturers have had to cut support for racing to the bone in many cases.  As of right now, there are apparently only 29 cars that will be fully sponsored in the Sprint Cup series in 2009.  This situation makes me wonder if now might be the time for smaller teams to make a few all out pushes to build a car, hire a driver, even for just a one race deal, and try to get the car and crew to the race track.  It's beginning to look doubtful that the field will be overpopulated with cars in 2009, at least at a lot of races.  Instead of seeing 48 cars battling to fill 43 starting spots, we may see only 39 or 40 teams show up at some tracks next year.  If these small teams can pass technical inspection, actually put a car on the track with a qualified driver, and have some form of over the wall crew, they could be racing in 2009.  It will take some deep pockets, and hopefully some short term sponsors to make this happen, but this could actually be a boom time for small teams just trying to get a toe hold in the sport.

Thinking along the same lines, this could be a good time for small sponsors to get their names on TV in 2009.  Smaller teams might have a better shot at making the field, and even a one race deal with the right team and driver might give a small sponsor more coverage than they ever dreamed would be possible on a national forum.  I keep thinking back to a few years ago, when in 2005, a Dodge driven by Kevin Lepage, owned by a Georgia businessman named John Carter, and sponsored by Patron Tequila finished 9th in the Daytona 500.  That little deal netted winnings in excess of $300,000, which is not a bad race day for anyone.  Storybook endings like this won't happen every race, but all racing is a gamble.  You don't know what you got until the green flag drops, and in a lot of ways, advertising has to be the same way.  You never know quite what you have until you put it out there for all the world to see.  A smaller playing field in NASCAR might mean that some small company, some small race team, and some driver nobody's ever heard of could make a big splash on the national stage.

Sometimes what seems like unfortunate events for many can actually turn into opportunity for others.  Racing is obviously a competitive sport, but what many might not realize is that there is competition well beyond the track.  Sponsors compete to have their names and products showcased in the best possible places.  Crew members compete to get on the best teams.  Even writers and journalists have been hit hard by this economic downturn.  Mike Mulhern, who wrote for the Winston-Salem Journal for over 30 years had his job eliminated this year.  I've not always agreed with Mr. Mulhern's opinions, but I've always had great respect for his writing abilities.  I know we'll be seeing much more of Mike's writing in the future, because he's far too good a journalist to keep away from the sport, and much more importantly, his readers.

Also, careful NASCAR junkies will no doubt notice that Yahoo has basically dropped it's full time coverage of NASCAR as well.  Though there will be some feature and special articles, we probably won't be reading the day to day happenings in NASCAR in 2009.  I wish all the crew at Yahoo who have worked so hard over the years well in all their new endeavors.  We'll be seeing more of those guys on other forums soon, I trust.

Though we all face tough times ahead, it is nice to remember that sometimes, for every dark cloud that covers the sky, often a little rainbow appears.  Ten years from now, I hope to be reading stories about people who found success beyond their wildest dreams in the middle of such hard times.

A NASCAR Fan's Open Letter to Santa Claus

Hey, Big Man! It's almost that time of year again. I know you're busy finishing up the toy production run for this year, and undoubtedly almost finished making your list and have probably proceeded to checking it twice. May a sometimes naughty, but mostly nice racing fan make a few last minute requests?

First and foremost, Santa, please bring us safe racing next year. Let every driver, crew member, official, fan, and passerby return to their homes after the race under their own power. We pray to the Good Lord for the same thing week in and week out, but we figure maybe a little Christmas Magic could help in that area as well.

Please bring us some good racing in 2009. Please let every race have its own unique qualities, its own personality, it's own reasons for fans wanting to watch it over and over again, and to want to come back to the same track in the future for even more.

Please bring Goodyear a magic formula for tire compounds in 2009, please, please, please Sir! Please don't give us the ugly lump of coal that was the Indianapolis race from 2008 again, Santa! We as fans promise, we'll be good!

Santa, please bring the new car better handling. Please let the drivers race each other for wins rather than simply just trying to keep the car on the track and out of the fence. In other words, Santa, please give us racing again instead of 500 mile tests.

Santa, please bring all the teams more sponsors in 2009. Many of the smaller teams are hurting, and need just a little boost to get them in the races. On a side note, please bring us all more money so we can support our sport by buying tickets and merchandise! Or just bring us the tickets and the merchandise! You know who we are and who wants what! (wink, wink!)

Santa, can you please bring us some good, old fashioned, straight up qualifying? Bring us the fastest 43 cars and let them race. Bring NASCAR some common sense so that they know the top 35 rule is basically making it harder, instead of easier, for smaller teams to get into the field.

Santa, can you bring us a return to racing without the Chase for the Cup? I think the Chase is another deterrent to would be sponsors, because the sponsors that really want to shine want to make sure they are only on a top 12 car every year, which leaves a lot of cars without adequate sponsorship who might be in the Chase if they had more resources. NASCAR has unwittingly created a vicious circle here, Santa, and instead of improving the racing with its so-called play off system, it's only eliminated most of the field from gaining much exposure during the last 10 races of the season. Nothing irritates a sponsor more than not getting air time.

Santa, can you bring the upper management at NASCAR a little extra wisdom for next year? Just enough to show them that monkeying with a great product almost always lessens the value of the product. It seems to me that the racing just isn't as good as it used to be. There are exceptions, of course, but even races that in the past have always been exciting seem to have lost a little of their luster lately. (Try saying that fast three times, Santa!)

Finally, Santa, I implore you to send some of your elves to Detroit and other great cities all over the continent and help get the Big 3 straightened out. NASCAR just won't be the same without Chevrolet, Ford, or Dodge. We know your guys have production down to, well, magic. If anyone can straighten out the mess our automobile manufacturers are in, you and your folks can, Santa! I just know you can!

Lastly, (I know I said finally before, but you know how I am) I'd recommend a little higher spring rate and a round down on the track bar on your sleigh. It will help you in the corners, I think.

Merry Christmas Santa! Merry Christmas to all the Racing Nation.

Sincerely,

Your Friend,

Jimmy C

Dodge Says They're Hanging In There

Despite the massive financial problems facing the Chrysler Corporation, Dodge Motorsports director Mike Accavitti says that they will continue to support its NASCAR program. In the short term, this is very good news for NASCAR and its Dodge teams.

I will not delve into the root causes of the financial difficulties which all the domestic automakers face here. There are literally thousands of places to read analysis of the economics involved. As far as NASCAR is concerned, 3 of the 4 automobile manufacturers represented in the sport are in big trouble. Dodge is shutting down all North American manufacturing plants for at least 30 days. Ford has announced that it will extend the annual 2 week shut down of 10 of its plants by an extra week in January.

The fact is this: All of NASCAR's non Toyota teams face drops in manufacturer support in 2009 and beyond. This quite frankly blows NASCAR's carefully tweaked level playing field all to heck. Toyota has already been flexing it's considerable muscles and appears to be ready to dominate the sport should its competitors lose manufacturer support.

Dodge's commitment to supporting its race teams in the middle of such uncertainty is commendable. How effective its support to its teams will be remains, of course, to be determined. Coming off a disappointing 2008 season, and now faced with a financial crises, Dodge has proven that when it came back to NASCAR in 2001, it came back to stay.

I sincerely hope that Ford and Chevrolet will be able to step up to the plate and make the same commitment.