Monday, September 15, 2008

How Quickly the Chase Landscape can Change

The New Hampshire International Speedway has gone from being at best a rather boring track to being a track that has regularly showcased some of the Sprint Cup Series' finest racing in recent years. NHIS is quickly becoming one of those tracks that I really want to visit on race day before I either die or give up watching the sport.

We witnessed hard racing, not just for the lead, but well back in the pack yesterday. We saw the odds on favorite to win the Cup's race turn from bad to worse yesterday, when Kyle Busch had major suspension problems early in the race and saw him finish in 34th place, many laps down. We saw Greg Biffle, whom many didn't believe would even make the Chase a month or so ago, charge to the lead in the closing laps and win his first Cup race of the season. We saw the series' most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., take the lead for nearly 80 laps, only to lose it when he apparently received a bad set of tires on a pit stop.

To say that Dale Jr. was frustrated after losing the lead for good with the bad set of tires would be an understatement. As he is known to do during the heat of competition, he expressed his frustration roundly on the radio to crew chief Tony Eury Jr. It was at this point that owner Rick Hendrick stepped in. He talked to Dale Jr. on the radio, urging him to calm down, to not lose focus. Hendrick reassured Dale Jr. that he still had a good car, and he just needed to give Tony Jr. some feedback and to take out his frustration not on his crew chief, but on the cars ahead of him. Earnhardt seemed to respond to the coaching his owner was giving him, and rallied to finish 5th, his second solid top 5 finish in a row. Top 5 finishes are what got Dale Jr. to the position he's in, and it's good to see him return to that form once again.

True, a win would have been better than a top 5. I don't think anyone would dispute that. Dale Jr. says that he needs to be fired up inside the car sometimes, that it helps him keep his eye on the prize, as it were. I don't think any other driver would disagree with him about that. I do feel that it is important that the driver remain calm enough to help his crew chief sort though problems that the driver is having on the track though. I believe that this is an adjustment in the way Earnhardt Jr. has dealt with problems on the track in the past. I think it wise that one remember that until this year, Dale Jr. has rarely had an active owner talking to him on the radio during a race. Dale Jr. has long expressed his desire to have an owner at the track with him, to be able to talk to about the car, about the conditions of the track, to just be there as a cheerleader, if nothing else. Dale Earnhardt Jr. now has that in Rick Hendrick. Rick has made a commitment to give Dale Jr. whatever he needs to win, and now Dale Jr. needs to learn how to take the advantage of using what he's been given to do what he's there to do: Win.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a talented and driven race car driver, and he's still in his first season with a new organization. Old habits die hard, as they say. I agree with Rick Hendrick that Tony Jr. can probably help get the car better if he's not facing an onslaught of rants, but receiving solid information that will help him to make the call on adjustments that need to be made. In the past, at DEI, Dale Jr. and Tony Jr. were both basically men stranded on their own island, receiving apparently little in the way of direction from the higher ups at DEI. This year is different. They have an active, interested team owner who is willing to do whatever it takes to help them to reach the next level in NASCAR's most elite series, which is winning championships.

Rick Hendrick, in his 25 years as an owner in NASCAR Cup racing, has won a lot of championships. He knows how to get it done. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is having a great year, but he needs to know that he's not in it alone anymore. He's got the support, and he needs to know that if the car has problems, Tony Jr. and the crew will fix it. He's got to help them though, which he does, but he's got to realize that thousands, maybe millions of people are listening to his every word on the radio every week, and his words during the race can give the impression that he is not as happy with his crew chief as he says he is off the track. This leads to much of the criticism that Tony Jr. receives every week, from fans of Dale Jr. and from people who aren't fans at all. Fortunately, neither Dale Jr. or Tony Jr. appear to care what the arm chair crew chiefs think.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is tied for 4th place in points after New Hampshire. He is only 50 points behind the leaders. With the misfortunes of Kyle Busch on Sunday, he actually gained on the lead. Top 5 finishes are a good way to stay at the top of the points list, but Dale Jr. knows he's probably going to have to win at least one of the next 9 races in order to win the championship. If Dale Jr. will take a little of Rick Hendrick's advice, that task will be much easier.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

For Earnhardt Jr., Racing for Championships is a Family Tradition

Racing for, and even winning racing championships is nothing new for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Even as all the naysayers foretell that he will come up short in his efforts to win the Sprint Cup in 2008, many forget that Earnhardt Jr. is already a two time champion in NASCAR's Nationwide Series, which at the time was known as the Busch Series.

Dale Jr.'s father won the Cup championship 7 times in his career, and came very close to winning a few more. Dale Jr.'s previous best shot at winning the Cup came in 2004, when he won 7 races and was in contention until having problems near the very end of the season. Dale Jr. knows that all it takes is one little mistake, and a driver can take his team completely out of the running in just the blink of an eye. I was at the fall Atlanta race in 2004 when Dale Jr. spun on the backstretch, effectively ending his hopes for the Cup that year. After such a successful season, the pain and frustration that Dale Jr. felt after the race was reflected in the faces of the fans at the track, a huge sea of red, which was the color of Budweiser, Dale Jr.'s sponsor back in those days.

To say that Earnhardt Jr. wants to win the Cup championship would be like you or I saying that we want air to breathe or water to drink. Dale Jr. has come close, so close he can taste it, and has come up short thus far. He knows that these next 10 races will have to be perfect. Perfection does not mean that he has to win the next 10 races. It just means that he cannot make any major mistakes on the track or in the pits. He knows that his crew chief has to make solid decisions, and that his pit crew has to perform as a well oiled machine. He cannot suffer engine problems. He must not put himself in a position to wreck, yet he must charge hard and try to finish up front each and every race.

Arguably, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is equipped with the best team and the best equipment he's ever had in his career. This year, he broke a 76 race winless streak at Michigan. For the first part of the season, he was one of the most consistent drivers on the track. After a few late season miscues, some of which were of his own making, Dale Jr. finished the race to the Chase with a solid top 5 finish at Richmond last week. What Dale Jr. and the 88 team must do now is to make sure they have their game face on for the next 10 races. Any ironing out of problems or differences must now be complete if they are going to finish the season in first place.

Technically, each of the 12 drivers who made the Chase has a legitimate shot at winning the championship. Dale Jr. knows he will have to drive some of his very best races in the coming weeks if he is to overcome the odds that face him right now. The 3 drivers ahead of him in points have won a total of 18 races between them this year. Teammate Jimmie Johnson appears to have momentum on his side right now, having won 3 or his 4 races in the latter part of the season leading up to the Chase. Kyle Busch has been dominate at practically every track at which he's raced this year. Carl Edwards has been so strong, his insurance company has to be considering raising his premiums, in the event that Carl finally misses one of his signature back flips and lands on his head. In other words, Dale Earnhardt Jr. knows that to win the championship, he will be fighting an uphill battle all the way.

Eight other Chase drivers will be facing the same uphill battle as Dale Jr. There are other drivers not in the chase who will be desperate to make a good showing of themselves as well, whether it be just to put a better face on a disappointing season, or to help keep their sponsors for next year. Though the spotlight will be mostly on the 12 Chase drivers for the rest of the season, the best way to break into that circle of light will be to win a race. Just because there are only 12 drivers in contention for the championship, it will not mean that the rest of the field will meekly pull over and let the championship contenders drive on by. In fact, quite the opposite might happen.

Few NASCAR drivers come from as pure of a racing heritage as does Dale Earnhardt Jr. His father knew how to race for and win championships, and a younger Dale Jr. did so as well back in the old Busch Series. An older, wiser Dale Jr. has proven his ability to keep his cool under adversity and pressure, and as long as he keeps doing much of what he's been doing all year, he will be a serious contender for the championship this year.

For Dale Jr., it's all in his hands and in the hands of his team now.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

A Word of Prayer.

Last night, along with millions of others, I watched with growing horror as the reporters on the various news channels brought us first hand reports of the devastation of Hurricane Ike, as it came onshore directly over Galveston, Texas. Also being reported in the news cycle was the tragedy that occurred in Los Angeles, when a commuter train collided head on with a freight train, where the casualty count thus far stands at 15 dead and 135 injured. That number, sadly, is likely to increase.

The total casualty counts from Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana are not know yet, and indeed it could be weeks before even an approximate number is known. As I look back through the logs of recent readers that my statistics program for this blog keeps, I see a lot of familiar names, such as Galveston, Clute, Beaumont, Clear Lake, Texas City, and many others. Because of the massive loss of power, it may be months before any of these readers have the time or the ability to visit us here again. Of course this is nothing but a blog about a sport, and there is certainly no life or death concerns associated with NASCAR, other than the usual possibilities that exist in the sport. Life and death, though a real part of racing heritage, is a choice undertaken by the drivers involved. In the real world of everyday life, all this seems very insignificant today.

The casualties on the trains in LA never had a chance. They never saw it coming. Lives were snuffed out in a fraction of a second, and as horrible as the loss of life is, that may have been merciful compared to what the people in Texas and Louisiana have gone through over the last 24 hours, and indeed is still going on. With Hurricane Ike, everyone knew it was coming. Some doubted whether or not the conditions would become as bad as they did. Some people refused to evacuate, and it's entirely likely that some of those may not have survived the storm. Though it is extremely unlikely that there will be anywhere near the casualties suffered during the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, it is unlikely that all who stayed behind could have survived.

My prayers go out today to the people of the Gulf Coast, and to those affected by the train crash in Los Angeles. May the Lord be with them, their families and their loved ones. The loss of property has already become staggering from the effects of Hurricane Ike. I pray that the loss of life does not become so as well.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Thoughts on the 2008 Chase for the Cup

The Chase positions are now set, and a few drivers and teams with high hopes are merely just now trying to salvage some wins in the last 10 races of the season. Among the disappointed is most definitely Kasey Kahne, the series top ranked Dodge driver, who just missed his shot at making it to the show. Even with two wins, Kahne will finish no better than 13th in points this season.

Among the drivers who did make it into the Chase, the odds on favorites have to be Kyle Busch, the points leader, and 8 time race winner in 2008. Carl Edwards is another favorite, with 6 wins. Jimmie Johnson has been on a run as of late, with 4 wins, with 3 of those coming near the latter part of the season. This years Chase is made up of cars running under the banner of only 4 different owners, those being Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush Motorsports, HendrickMotorsports, and Richard Childress Racing.

Despite some great races this year, Red Bull Racing's Toyotas, driven by A.J. Allmendinger and Brian Vickers will not be part of the big show. The only Toyotas in the Chase are the 3 cars of Joe Gibbs Racing. It would appear that the vast improvement in Toyota performance in 2008 was limited mainly to one organization. Though Red Bull, Bill Davis, and Michael Waltrip's teams all showed improvement this year, none was much of a threat in most of the races. I also find it interesting that even though all 3 of the Childress cars made the Chase, none of the Dale Earnhardt Inc. cars did, even though both teams share the same Earnhardt-Childress engine packages.

Once again, Hendrick Motorsports managed to get 3 of their cars into the Chase, with Jimmie Johnson, who has lead all of his teammates with 4 wins. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has 1 win, and possibly the most shocking statistic of all, is that even though Jeff Gordon will be in the Chase, he has no victories as of yet this year.

Jack Roush managed to put 3 cars in the Chase field as well. Carl Edwards has had a phenominal season, and teammates Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth will join him in this years elite field. Young David Ragan just missed getting in, which has to be disappointing to a driver who has showed much improvement this year.

As for me, I'm still not totally sold on the idea of the Chase for the Cup. If I'm in charge of marketing for Budweiser, which is the primary sponsor for Kasey Kahne's Dodge, or AAA, which is David Ragan's sponsor, I would be very much against the idea of the Chase. No matter what these two drivers do for the rest of the season, short of winning multiple races, these sponsors have to know that they will not be in the spot light for the rest of the season.

NASCAR keeps tinkering with the Chase format, and I expect further changes once again next year. In my belief, however, I think it's time for NASCAR to quit tinkering and just let the drivers race.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

California Dreaming

The Auto Club Speedway at Fontana, California hosted our NASCAR traveling circus over the Labor Day weekend, and for a pure racing fan, there was much left to be desired. As usual, there were many empty seats, especially for the Nationwide race on Saturday night. The Pepsi 500 Cup race netted more ticket holders, but still, the empty seats at the track in the 2nd biggest market in the US were obvious.

I agree with several of my more esteemed colleagues in the NASCAR writing game, that California should indeed have 2 race dates. The market is too big, and too important to leave with just one race date. The racing, however, needs to improve.

Kyle Busch led practically every lap in Saturday's Nationwide race. Nobody was nearly as good as Kyle. If you are a Kyle Busch fan, the race was fantastic. Since most of the racing world are not Kyle Busch fans, the consensus was this: Boring.

The Pepsi 500 was little better. Jimmie Johnson had a car that just completely dominated the field all day, and though Greg Biffle tried to catch him at the end, it was obvious from lap 1 that no one had anything for the 48. The only real excitement during the race was watching car after car almost spin out coming out of the turns. For a fan on the east coast, such as me, it seemed not worth the effort to stay up until midnight to see the end of such a boring race.

I agree with some of my more esteemed colleagues on another point, which involves the track itself. Bulldoze it. Tear it down, and start over.

Roger Penske had a vision of duplicating the track at Brooklyn, Michigan when he built the California Speedway. He got the length right, at 2 miles, but precious little else. There is not enough banking on the track. There is a lot of single groove racing, for the most part. Cars can run in separate grooves, but they can't pass in them. At least the new car can't.

The new car poses enough problems of it's own. Most of the teams still haven't been able to get a handle on the car, or to fix the handling problems therein. Only a few teams seem to have figured it out. Obviously the 18 car of Kyle Busch and crew chief Steve Addington have got it mostly figured out. The 99 car of Carl Edwards with crew chief Bob Osborne seem to have it somewhat figured out. And now the 48 car of Jimmie Johnson with crew chief Chad Knaus seem to have made a breakthrough as well.

The Pepsi 500 was started during the daytime, and finished under the lights. On the west coast, that's probably a fine idea, but back here in the east, that makes for a long night, especially when the race basically consists of follow the leader. The current configuration of the track at Fontana has shown itself to be a disaster.

Some solutions that I would offer: Make the track a high banked oval at the very least. Watching cars running at half throttle much of the laps in an attempt to keep from spinning out makes for bad racing. Better yet, tear down the track and start over. Go to a short track format with stadium seating all around, such as Bristol. Or, make it a 2.75 mile high banked oval, in other words, the track that makes Talladega look weak. Do one or the other, but just do something!

Another solution I would offer is to give California a different race date other than Labor Day, and give that date back to Darlington. NASCAR is all about tradition and history, and taking that race away from Darlington in the first place was a very big mistake, in my not so humble opinion. If Darlington is only worth one race date, let it be Labor Day. Darlington certainly is not situated in a major market, but it's only a couple of hours from cities like Charlotte, NC, Atlanta, GA, Charleston, SC, Columbia, SC, and Savannah, GA. Darlington always pleases the fans. There is awesome racing there, virtually every race that is run there. Tradition and history are things that old school fans appreciate, and NASCAR has really screwed up both of those by moving the Labor Day race to California. Attention: Brian France, get with the program please!

NASCAR has tried to expand too rapidly, I think. They want to have a track next to every major city in the US, but they haven't allowed the fan base to catch up with their greed yet. I say don't put a race in the New York City area, let them watch it on TV and then let them scream for a track on Long Island or somewhere. Let the demographics decide where you put tracks. Don't put a track where no one really cares about racing. Since 2001, NASCAR has had major exposure on several different TV networks, and as long as they keep that up, the sport will grow. Quit trying to slip in the back door in markets that don't really care about the sport. Wait until they are jumping up and down, screaming, and demanding that you put a track in their area. That will assure success.

In other words, Brian France needs to go back and look at what his father and grandfather did before him. Screwing with a good thing can make it all go down the drain. NASCAR was and is a good thing, but the more it's tinkered with, the worse it will get.

Let the drivers drive, let the car builders build cars, let the engine builders build engines. For the love of God, Brian France, let the racers race!

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Is it really Panic Time for the 88 Team?

There has been a lot of buzz in the media and on the message boards over the last few weeks about the lackluster performance of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and the 88 team. Crew chief Tony Eury Jr. has received much of the blame for the team's performance. Some of that blame can certainly be justified, but there have been many factors that have caused problems lately with the 88 team.

Earnhardt Jr. is desperately seeking a return to the early days of the season, where consistency was a hallmark of his on track performance. These days, it's not even so much about getting a win, but finishing in the top 10. Though a win at any time is a welcome event, right now the team needs to regain the consistency that it had earlier this season.

This week, the NASCAR traveling road show once again rolls into Fontana, California for the second race date at this 2 mile track. California was the site of one of Dale Jr.'s rare early season disasters. Caught up in a spin that started with teammate Casey Mears' spin, Earnhardt crashed, and had to eventually finish a many times red flagged race many laps down. Earnhardt hopes to break the trend of what has become a series of heartbreaks at California. Historically, California is not a track at which one would expect Dale Jr. to make a comeback.

Though there are problems with the 88 program, all is not lost. Though he's had only one top 10 finish since his win at Michigan, Dale Jr. has finished every race this season. Before any driver can win races, he has to finish them, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been finishing them. Even with the disappointing finishes, Dale Jr. remains in 3rd place in points. In order to clinch a spot in the Chase for the Cup, Dale Jr. only has to finish 40th or better on Sunday at California.

So far this year, Dale Jr. has not lost an engine during a race, a problem which basically doomed his chances of making the Chase last year. Dale Jr. is definitely racing with better equipment and better engineering this year than was available at Dale Earnhardt Inc. last year. Though many question his decision to bring in Tony Eury Jr. to be his crew chief, that decision was Dale Jr.'s and so far, their track record at Hendrick Motorsports is not really a bad one, with all things considered. Being 3rd in points, 24 races into the season, is a position that many other drivers would very much like to be in.

There basically is no reason for the doom and gloom, Dale Jr. fans. Yes, there have been missed opportunities, but we should all remember the high points that this season has shown us as well. A pole at Texas, a win at Michigan, and many, many laps led at other tracks is a huge improvement for Dale Jr. compared to the last couple of years. A position in the Chase is all but assured, and there have been other years when a chance at the Chase was either a long shot, or a total impossibility at this point in the season. Dale Jr. and the 88 team are alive and well, and is still a major threat to win all the marbles in 2008. Do they need to improve? Of course they do. There's always room for improvement in any program. Dale Jr. has the ability to overcome tough situations though, so it's still a little too early to count him out.

On a side note, NASCAR has placed Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards on probation through the end of the year as a result of their post race antics at Bristol on Saturday. Though many consider this a very minor slap on the wrist, or even a joke, I believe it is wise to think about the future implications of this ruling by the sanctioning body.

Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are 1st and 2nd in points currently. Should any of Bristol's bad feelings spill over into another race, it's possible that NASCAR will penalize either or both of them with points, or, horror of horrors, being parked for a race. We all know that Kyle and Carl have anger management issues on the track. They have them off the track at times as well. I think it's just a matter of time before one or both of these personalities boils over and they do something that NASCAR might frown upon. Another scuffle like they had at Bristol will almost undoubtedly lead to much harsher penalties. Or will it? Since we're talking about the National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, who knows?

The fun is just beginning! Let's see just how big this little rivalry will get. If either one gets a hefty points penalty, Dale Jr. and the rest of the Chase drivers will benefit from it.

Monday, August 25, 2008

The Leader of the Brat Pack

On Saturday night, Kyle Busch once again proved that it's not nice to race Kyle Busch hard, at least in Kyle's opinion.

His post race altercation with winner Carl Edwards just proved once again that maturity is not part of Kyle's character. On the cool down lap, he decided that Carl's bump and run move that helped Carl seal his victory in the Sharpie 500 warranted another bump of his own. Kyle's efforts only ended up with Kyle spinning out when Carl leaned back a little. During the post race interview, Kyle made the usual whiny noises that he makes when he has a victory snatched from his grasp.

Kyle may like to pretend that his own bump and run maneuvers are always completely above board and legitimate. I imagine others would not see things that way. Just ask Mr. Earnhardt what his thoughts were when Kyle spun him at Richmond. Kyle Busch seems to maintain a holier than thou attitude when it comes to his own dirty tactics on the track. As a matter of fact, very few, if any of Kyle's total 17 wins in 3 series have occurred without him physically pushing someone out of his way. In speaking about the Richmond incident with Earnhardt Jr., Kyle sarcastically said that "apparently racing Dale Jr. isn't allowed."

The real truth is, and Kyle has abundantly demonstrated this, is that racing Kyle Busch isn't allowed. What we saw on Saturday night at Bristol was just another predictable temper tantrum from the guy who likes to call himself "Rowdy". Carl Edward's bump and run was very clean by Bristol standards. Kyle got a little loose, but continued on and finished in second place. Had Kyle been spun out by Edwards, as Earnhardt Jr. was by Kyle at Richmond, Kyle might have had reason to be upset.

At Richmond, reporters tried to goad Dale Jr. into pointing a finger of blame at Kyle, and Dale Jr. refused to take the bait. An obviously frustrated Earnhardt Jr. refused to blame anyone, pointing out that he had not watched a replay and didn't want to pass judgment until he had taken time to review the situation. Contrast that with Kyle Busch' attempt to use his race car as a 3500 lb. fist and give Edwards a punch, especially after the race had concluded. Apologists keep pointing out that Kyle is only 23 years old. That explanation is getting old, and quite frankly lame. There are infantry platoon commanders, who have led their men in combat who are younger than Kyle Busch. Kyle has been at this game long enough to know better, and in my humble opinion, Kyle's behavior is not just annoying, it's down right shameful. Watching a grown man throw a tantrum is not a pretty sight to see. It's not even a pretty site when a preschool kid does it, but it's especially embarrassing when a grown man does it.

Nascar fans and journalists like to group their drivers in varying ways. There's the old school guys, like Bill Elliot or Kenny Schrader. We've had the young guns like Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne. Now it appears that we have the brat pack, of which I personally feel that Kyle Busch is the undisputed leader.